Indonesia appears poised to lift its ban on coal exports, just a week after it announced it would suspend all coal exports for a month, sending shockwaves through global markets, according to foreign media reports, Barba has learned. Indonesia, the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, is expected to ship at least 3,500 tonnes in January to major customers including China, India, Japan and South Korea.

The Indonesian Ministry of Energy reported on Dec. 31 that domestic coal supplies were dwindling and that it would suspend all export permits for January to give time to rebuild inventories at domestic factories while the government considers the long-term situation. The government says it is necessary to ensure they do not suffer domestic power shortages. Experts have expressed concern about China in particular, which imports a lot of coal and was heavily denied Australian coal in a political dispute in 2020. However, there were reports that China and South Korea had large stocks, but Japan immediately asked the Indonesian government to lift the shipment ban.

The tracking service reported a large number of bulk carriers berthed off a large export port on the Indonesian island of Borneo. As many as 100 vessels were idled offshore by mid-week, according to some estimates, while VesselsValue published tracking data showing a sharp drop in bulk vessel departures from Indonesian ports. But they also shipped a lot more coal domestically.

CNBC quoted the minister of maritime and investment Affairs as saying the immediate crisis is over. He said the domestic power supply has been replenished to meet the urgent needs of the power industry. However, long-term solutions are reportedly being discussed to maintain a continuous supply of domestic needs.

However, reports are divided as to whether Indonesia has actually ended the export ban. Reuters news agency said discussions were under way between the government and the miners to resolve the problem and that an end to the export ban was expected by the end of the week or early this week. However, Lloyd’s reports that the government has quietly begun renewing export licences that were suspended earlier this week.

Global markets remain volatile, with prices in China rising nearly 10 percent on the first day after the ban. By mid-week, however, prices had begun to stabilise amid reports that this would be a short-term imbalance. All eyes are on the Indonesian government for an official decision and when shipping will resume. It is unclear how long it will take to clear the huge backlog of ships docked at coal export ports.